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ZTO Express (Cayman)MEX:ZTO N 90 Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is MXN909.34 as of Sep. 16, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:ZTO N with a GF Score™ of 90/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN516.96 (Significantly Undervalued). Among 153 Transportation companies, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks better than 84.97% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
The historical rank and industry rank for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
MEX:ZTO N'
s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.37 Med: 0.4 Max: 0.54
Current: 0.38
During the past 12 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of ZTO Express (Cayman) was 0.54. The lowest was 0.37. And the median was 0.40.
MEX:ZTO N's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked better than 84.97% of 153
companies
in the Transportation industry
Industry Median: 0.87
vs MEX:ZTO N: 0.38
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms
ZTO Express (Cayman) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
MEX:ZTO N vs CHRW, FDXF, JBHT: Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Comparison
For the Integrated Freight & Logistics subindustry, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) vs Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.99%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 18.40%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
10 years was 18.40%,
which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 18.40%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = MXN32.398. GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of MXN909.34 mean?
ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) of MXN909.34 as of Sep. 16, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on ZTO Express (Cayman) and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks #23 out of 153 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 15%.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) too high?
ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is MXN909.34. Based on the distribution chart, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks #23 out of 153 companies in the Transportation industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, ZTO Express (Cayman) has a GF Score™ of 90/100 and is considered Significantly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) compare to CHRW and FDXF?
According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, ZTO Express (Cayman) ranks #23 out of 153 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based). This places ZTO Express (Cayman) in the top 15% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.87. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for a Transportation company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) among Transportation companies is 0.87, based on 153 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted earnings model. View historical data on ZTO Express (Cayman) and its competitors. For the Transportation industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is 0.87 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is MXN909.34. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N) is currently considered Significantly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN516.96, compared to a current price of MXN359.77 — trading 30.4% below its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is MXN909.34. ZTO Express (Cayman)'s overall GF Score™ is 90/100. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is MXN909.34 as of Sep. 16, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is ZTO Express (Cayman) (MEX:ZTO N) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ZTO Express (Cayman) stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of MXN359.77 is trading 30.4% below its estimated GF Value™ of MXN516.96.
GuruFocus considers ZTO Express (Cayman) to be Significantly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for MEX:ZTO N:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based): MXN909.34
GF Value™: MXN516.96 vs. price of MXN359.77 (30.4% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:ZTO N stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
ZTO Express is China's largest express delivery company by parcel volume, with a volume share of 19.4% in 2024. It operates a network partner model where it provides line-haul transportation and sorting services, while its local network partners provide first-mile pickup and last-mile delivery services under the ZTO brand name. Headquartered in Shanghai, the company was founded in 2002 by Meisong Lai, who remains chair, CEO, and its major shareholder with 78% voting rights as of March 31, 2025. ZTO's strategic shareholder is leading China e-commerce company Alibaba Group with around an 8.9% interest.
90GF Score
Get the complete analysis for MEX:ZTO N
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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